Illinois comes off a bye here after they faced three top 20 defenses and their offense and stock has fallen dramatically, but I think we get good value in an early game because of it. For the first time they'll face a poor defense in quite some time.
Illinois defense is under rated as they have only allowed 2.6 ypc on the ground in their home games and I think they can hold Indiana's explosive running back Stephen Houston in check. Illinois is actually among the nations leaders in forcing three and outs and that's something their offense surely will benefit form on Saturday. The main issue with this group has been blown coverages and missed tackles and that's perfect for a bye week. It's something that can be cleaned up and on paper this is still hte best defense that Indiana has faced on the road. No doubt head coach Tim Bechman will see the tape of Indiana's strength in the passing game. Cam Coffman has been good on short intermediate routes but lacks any arm strength to throw to the perimeter and I think Illinois will bring their safeties close to the action. Illinois is also only allowing 34% 3rd down conversions at home while Indiana only converting 36% on the road.
Now offensively Illinois should be just fine. Facing three top 20 defenses in Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State going into the bye will make them work that much harder and coming out of the bye facing a defense like Indiana should result in positive things. Indiana is 85th in third down defense and they struggle against mobile QB's. Nathan Schelhaase may actually be able to have a good game. He's been knocked out of games because of the poor play of a banged up offensive line, but in this game that will be different. For one his offensive line is actually healthy and Indiana is 101st in sack % and only gets to the QB 2.38% of drop backs. This is a big week for Illinois with it being homecoming as well and they just meet an Indiana team at the right time, unfortunately for the Hoosiers.
